Earlier this year, President Cyril Ramaphosa warned South Africans that social grants, along with NSFAS would disappear if the ANC were to be voted out of power.
At the time Political analyst Prof. Andre Duvenhage said the President's statements were likely aimed at securing votes for the ANC in the 2024 elections.
But I have no doubt that Mr Ramaphosa is using this as a mechanism to persuade people to vote for the ANC in government.
Currently, 19 million people receive permanent social grants from Sassa, with an additional 9 million eligible for the Social Relief of Distress (SRD) grant. Approximately one million students at tertiary institutions are expected to receive comprehensive NSFAS bursaries.
Duvenhage acknowledged concerns about the provision of social assistance if a new party takes power, which might implement different policies. However, they contended that most political parties in South Africa are committed to democratic and developmental goals, ensuring continued social support for the poor regardless of which party governs.
Do Social Grants Impact Who People Vote For
Researchers Leila Patel and Yolanda Sadie from the University of Johannesburg released a study on voting behaviour in South Africa, examining whether social grant recipients reward political parties with votes.
Their research, which began in 2017, used data from five nationally representative surveys. The latest, conducted in 2023, investigates factors influencing voter choices for the 2024 national elections. This research looked at the relationship between social grants and voter behaviour.
From 2017 to 2020, the study found that simply receiving a grant did not sway voters towards any particular party. However, grant recipients showed a tendency to support the ANC if they feared losing their grants under a different government.
However, this trend shifted dramatically in the 2023 survey.
In 2023, the fear of losing grants no longer significantly influences voter decisions. This change is attributed to the inclusion of young people in grant programmes during the Covid-19 pandemic with the introduction of the SRD Grant.
The study also highlighted the substantial growth of South Africa’s social grants system, which expanded from covering 7.2% of the population in 1995 to 47% in 2022. The introduction of the SRD grant in 2020 further extended support to youth and unemployed adults.
Despite the wide reach of these grants, their relatively low monetary value often limits their impact on voting behaviour.
The latest survey indicates that while fear of losing grants previously drove support for the ANC, this is no longer the case. According to the survary, 53% of grant recipients in 2023 indicated they would vote for opposition parties, a significant increase from 26% in 2020.
Researchers say this shift may be due to increased confidence among recipients in their right to social assistance, reducing fears of grant loss if they vote for opposition parties.
Additionally, more opposition parties, such as the Democratic Alliance and the Economic Freedom Fighters endorse social grants, which may also have an impact on voter sentiment.
Researchers said socio-economic concerns remain paramount for voters.
The top reasons for party choice in the latest survey were job creation (55%), improving lives (49%), improving service delivery (48%), and paying social grants (44%).
While social grants are a factor, governance, corruption, party loyalty, leadership, and trust in President Ramaphosa also play significant roles according to the study.
Patel and Sadie conclude that a combination of these factors would drive voter decisions in the 2023 election.
The 2024 National Elections
The ANC has accepted the outcome of the election as the will of the people - confirming that the party is the largest in the country, but did not receive a majority of the votes. The ANC achieved around 40% of the vote.
